关键词: 油气藏, 资源评价, 规模, 概率, 统计分析, 西西伯利亚盆地

Abstract: Five oil and gas pool size probability distribution models are introduced and compared by using the data from west Siberian basin.They are tested on the same statistic standard and aseries of conclusion comes out.1.The probability density function of oil and gas pool size hasarather strong relationship with basin's geological features,especially the richness of hydro-carbon in basin.2.Shpilman distribution is effective in the highly rich hydrocarbon district Log-normal distribution is suitable for the intermediately rich district and Log-Log normaldistribution for the low one.The Sum-Average distribution shows a better fit than Log normal and Log-Log normal in the high to intermediately rich district.3.Jin-Shpilman distribution is the best one among these.It can describes pool size distribution which is sampled from-different exploration stage and up to the last natural population,It can give not only an accurate prediction of oil and gas pools number,but also can give a detail of the total resourceswhich graded into different size classes.It is applicable to different basin and different exploration stage.

Key words: oil and gas reservoir, resources assessment, size, probability, statis-tical analysis, west Siberian basin