海外油气勘探资产技术经济评价思路与方法

doi:10.7623/syxb201204014

石油学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 640-646.DOI: 10.7623/syxb201204014

海外油气勘探资产技术经济评价思路与方法

王　青　王建君　汪　平　易成高　张兴爽

中国石油勘探开发研究院国际项目评价研究所　北京　100083

收稿日期:2011-10-29 修回日期:2012-03-20 出版日期:2012-07-25 发布日期:2012-08-01
通讯作者: 王　青
作者简介:王　青，男，1976年11月生，2004年获石油大学（北京）硕士学位，现为中国石油勘探开发研究院高级工程师，主要从事海外油气新项目评价研究。
基金资助:
国家重大科技专项 “全球剩余油气资源研究及油气资产快速评价技术” （2008ZX05028）资助。

Methodology of technical and economical assessments of oversea exploration blocks

WANG Qing　WANG Jianjun　WANG Ping　YI Chenggao　ZHANG Xingshuang

Received:2011-10-29 Revised:2012-03-20 Online:2012-07-25 Published:2012-08-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

海外勘探资产的技术经济评价是项目可行性研究的核心内容，是一项复杂的系统工程。针对海外油气勘探资产技术经济评价面临着资产类型复杂、不确定因素多、评价时间较短且资料有限、技术评价难度大等多项挑战，提出了海外勘探资产全周期技术经济评价的总体思路和评价流程；并以中等勘探区块为例，深入剖析了地质与资源评价、概念性开发工程评价、钻采/地面工程评价、经济评价和风险评价等5个核心评价环节。在此基础上，将勘探资产根据勘探程度的高低分成前沿勘探区块、低勘探程度区块、中等勘探程度区块和高勘探程度区块4类，提出不同勘探程度区块的评价重点。结合实际工作经验，对海外勘探区块的权益股份、勘探期安排、义务工作量以及勘探区块进入时机确定等常见问题给出具体解决方案。

关键词: 海外勘探区块, 技术经济评价, 评价思路, 评价方法, 评价流程, 可行性研究

Abstract:

As a very complex system engineering, technical and economical assessments are the core part of project feasibility studies in acquiring oversea exploration blocks. In view of various challenges faced in the technical and economical assessment, such as complex types of blocks, multiple uncertainties, urgent demand of assessment, limited data, great difficulties in technical assessment, etc., the present paper proposed a general idea and methodology of the whole-circle technical and economical assessment of oversea exploration blocks and took a medium-size exploration block as an example to deeply investigate five key assessment parts, such as geology and resource assessment, engineering assessment in conceptual development, drilling/surface engineering assessment, economical assessment and risk assessment. On the basis of these, exploration blocks were classified into four different types according to their degrees of exploration, i.e. frontier exploration block, immature exploration block, medium exploration block and mature exploration block, moreover, assessment emphases for each type of blocks were proposed as well. Finally, integrated with the past assessment practice, the paper recommended some detailed solutions to issues frequently encountered in technical and economic assessments of oversea exploration blocks, such as block equities, arrangement of exploration period, obligatory and timing of block acquisition.

Key words: oversea exploration block, technical and economical assessment, assessment philosophy, assessment methodology, assessment process, feasibility study

王　青　王建君　汪　平　易成高　张兴爽. 海外油气勘探资产技术经济评价思路与方法[J]. 石油学报, 2012, 33(4): 640-646.

参考文献

[1]童晓光,朱向东.国际石油勘探开发项目的评价[J].国际石油经济,1995,3(3):37-40.

Tong Xiaoguang,Zhu Xiangdong.Assessment of international petroleum exploration and development projects[J].International Petroleum Economics,1995,3(3):37-40.

[2]童晓光,何登发.油气勘探原理和方法[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2001:10-18.

Tong Xiaoguang,He Dengfa.The principle and method of oil and gas exploration[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2001:10-18.

[3]王青,王建君,汪向东,等.并购海外油公司项目的技术经济评价思路与方法[J].石油学报,2007,28(2):144-150.

Wang Qing,Wang Jianjun,Wang Xiangdong,et al.Philosophy and methodology of technical and economical evaluation for oversea oil-company acquisition project[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2007,28(2):144-150.

[4]郭睿,原瑞娥,张兴,等.海外油气田开发新项目评价方法研究[J].石油学报,2005,26(5):42-47.

Guo Rui,Yuan Rui’e,Zhang Xing,et al.Evaluation method for new investment projects of overseas oil-gas field development[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2005,26(5):42-47.

[5]李志,潘校华,雷振宇,等.中国石油海外油气勘探项目可行性评价程序探讨[G]∥童晓光,张湘宁.跨国油气勘探开发国际研讨会论文集.北京:石油工业出版社,2006:54-60.

Li Zhi,Pan Xiaohua,Lei Zhenyu,et al.Discussion about the feasible procedure of new venture appraisal for CNPC[G]∥Tong Xiaoguang,Zhang Xiangning.Proceedings of international petroleum exploration and development symposia.Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2006:54-60.

[6]金之钧,石兴春,韩保庆.勘探开发一体化经济评价模型的建立及其应用[J].石油学报,2002,23(2):1-5.

Jin Zhijun,Shi Xingchun,Han Baoqing.The foundation and application of the integrated model of economic evaluation in exploration and development[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2002,23(2):1-5.

[7]罗东坤,俞云柯.油气资源经济评价模型[J].石油学报,2002, 23(6):12-15.

Luo Dongkun,Yu Yunke.Study on a model for oil and gas resources economic evaluation[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2002,23(6):12-15.

[8]Robert A M,Alfred E C,Kenneth G L,et al.Resource assessment methodologies:current status and future direction[J].AAPG Bulletin,2003,87(4):535-540.

[9]金之钧,张金川.油气资源评价方法的基本原则[J].石油学报,2002,23(1):19-23.

Jin Zhijun,Zhang Jinchuan.Fundamental principles for petroleum resources assessments[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2002,23(1):19-23.

[10]Otis R M,Schneidermann N.A process for evaluating exploration prospects[J].AAPG Bulletin,1997,81(7):1087-1109.

[11]Magoon L B,Sanchez R M O.Beyond the petroleum system[J].AAPG Bulletin,1995,79(12):1731-1736.

[12]童晓光,李浩武,肖坤叶,等.成藏组合快速分析技术在海外低勘探程度盆地的应用[J].石油学报,2009,30(3):317-323.

Tong Xiaoguang,Li Haowu,Xiao Kunye,et al.Application of play quick analysis technique in oversea basins with low-degree exploration[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2009,30(3):317-323.

[13]童晓光.论成藏组合在勘探评价中的意义[J].西南石油大学学报：自然科学版，2009,31(6):1-8.

Tong Xiaoguang.A disscussion on the role of accumulation association in the exploration evaluation[J].Journal of Southwest Petroleum University：Science and Technology Edition,2009,31(6):1-8.

[14]Doust H.The exploration play:What do we mean by it?[J].AAPG Bulletin,2010,94(11):1657-1672.

[15]窦立荣,肖坤叶,胡勇,等.乍得Bongor盆地石油地质特征及成藏模式[J].石油学报,2011,32(3):379-386.

Dou Lirong,Xiao Kunye,Hu Yong,et al.Petroleum geology and a model of hydrocarbon accumulations in the Bongor Basin,the Republic of Chad[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2011,32(3):379-386.

[16]White D A.Oil and gas play maps in exploration and assessment[J].AAPG Bulletin,1988,72(8):944-949.

[17]Rose P R.Dealing with risk and uncertainty in exploration:how can we improve?[J].AAPG Bulletin,1987,77(3):485-490.

[18]MacKay J A.Risk management in international petroleum ventures:ideas from a Hedberg Conference[J].AAPG Bulletin,1996,80(12):1845-1849.

[19]王雅春,庞雄奇,卢双舫.油气勘探经济评价中的风险系统[J].油气地质与采收率,2002,9(5):68-70.

Wang Yachun,Pang Xiongqi,Lu Shuangfang.Risk system in economic evaluation of oil and gas exploration[J].Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2002,9(5):68-70.

[20]White D A.Geologic risking guide for prospects and plays[J].AAPG Bulletin,1993,77(12):2048-2061.

[21]Rose P R.Measuring what we think we have found:advantages of probabilistic over deterministic methods for estimating oil and gas reserves and resources in exploration and production[J].AAPG Bulletin,2007,91(1):21-29.

[22]Bratvold R B,Begg S H.I would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong:A new approach to decision making in the petroleum exploration and production industry[J].AAPG Bulletin,2008,92(10):1373-1392.

[23]Smalley P C,Begg S H,Naylor M,et al.Handling risk and uncertainty in petroleum exploration and asset management:an overview[J].AAPG Bulletin,2008,92(10):1251-1261.

[24]季洪泉,崔旱云,王春修.海外项目快速评价方法探讨[J].中国石油勘探,2008,13(1):53-56.

Ji Hongquan,Cui Hanyun,Wang Chunxiu.A discussion on methods for rapid evaluation of overseas projects[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2008,13(1):53-56.

[25]Rose P R.Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures[G].AAPG methods in exploration series No.12,2001:49-53.

海外油气勘探资产技术经济评价思路与方法

Methodology of technical and economical assessments of oversea exploration blocks

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	龚斌, 王虹雅, 王红娜, 宋伟, 孙雄伟, 杨京华. 基于大数据分析算法的深部煤层气地质—工程一体化智能决策技术[J]. 石油学报, 2023, 44(11): 1949-1958.
[2]	窦立荣, 李大伟, 温志新, 王兆明, 米石云, 张倩. 全球油气资源评价历程及展望[J]. 石油学报, 2022, 43(8): 1035-1048.
[3]	胡勇, 李熙喆, 徐轩, 梅青燕, 陈颖莉, 王继平, 焦春艳, 郭长敏, 贾玉泽. 含水致密砂岩气藏可动用储量评价新方法及其应用[J]. 石油学报, 2021, 42(3): 332-340.
[4]	李俊乾, 卢双舫, 张鹏飞, 李文镖, 荆铁亚, 冯文俊. 页岩基质孔隙水定量表征及微观赋存机制[J]. 石油学报, 2020, 41(8): 979-990.
[5]	王社教, 李峰, 闫家泓, 胡俊文, 王凯鸿, 任衡泰. 油田地热资源评价方法及应用[J]. 石油学报, 2020, 41(5): 553-564.
[6]	曾联波, 刘国平, 朱如凯, 高志勇, 巩磊, 吕文雅. 库车前陆盆地深层致密砂岩储层构造成岩强度的定量评价方法[J]. 石油学报, 2020, 41(12): 1601-1609.
[7]	金强, 侯庆杰, 程付启, 王世梁, 张如才, 王飞龙. 成熟探区有效烃源岩的评价方法——以辽东湾地区为例[J]. 石油学报, 2019, 40(3): 257-267.
[8]	韩银学, 杨海长, 陈莹, 赵钊, 杨东升, 王龙颖, 沈怀磊, 肖曦. 深水少井区中深层岩性地层圈闭评价方法——以珠江口盆地白云凹陷恩平组白云11目标评价为例[J]. 石油学报, 2016, 37(S1): 68-78.
[9]	陈元千, 唐玮. 油气田剩余可采储量、剩余可采储采比和剩余可采程度的年度评价方法[J]. 石油学报, 2016, 37(6): 796-801.
[10]	许玉强, 管志川, 许传斌, 张洪宁, 张会增. 深水钻井井筒中天然气水合物生成风险评价方法[J]. 石油学报, 2015, 36(5): 633-640.
[11]	王社教, 蔚远江, 郭秋麟, 汪少勇, 吴晓智. 致密油资源评价新进展[J]. 石油学报, 2014, 35(6): 1095-1105.
[12]	张兆祥, 刘慧卿, 杨阳, 舒怀, 朱林. 稠油油藏蒸汽驱评价新方法[J]. 石油学报, 2014, 35(4): 733-738.
[13]	宁伏龙, 刘力, 李实, 张可, 蒋国盛, 吴能友, 孙长宇, 陈光进. 天然气水合物储层测井评价及其影响因素[J]. 石油学报, 2013, 34(3): 591-606.
[14]	闫铁, 李玮, 毕雪亮, 李士斌. 一种基于破碎比功的岩石破碎效率评价新方法[J]. 石油学报, 2009, 30(2): 291-294.
[15]	高德利, 代大良, 潘起峰. 地层自然造斜特性的测井评价方法研究[J]. 石油学报, 2008, 29(6): 927-932.