关键词: 资源评价, 经济评价, 蒙特卡罗模拟, 储层模拟

Abstract: The global exploration phases can be classified into the frontiers,immature and mature regions.The resources assessment will follow some steps:①basin analysis based on tectono-stratigraphic provinces and trend;②petroleum system studies and play evaluation;③play fairway and prospect screening and ranking.The key of the resources assessment is to establish a dynamic geo-economic evaluation system by data processing,detailed and thorough studies to find the scale and location of exploration target,the finding risks,and the commercial value. To pick out the favorable prospects depends heavily on the establishment of a geological concept and modeling,and the prediction of the modeling.There are two sets of outputs for the resources assessment including static and dynamic indexes for benchmarking and screening. The static indexes include net profit,maximum exposure to risk,pay back period of the investment.And the dynamic economic indexes include the net present value and discounted cash flow.Based on the introduction of the resources assessment methods used by the Majors,the resources assessment methods carried out in Tarim Basin by ExxonMobil and in Changbei project of Ordos Basin by Shell are presented. There is a brief review on the Monte-Carlo simulation technology and the Duplo reservoir simulation method.

Key words: oil and gas resources assessment, economic evaluation, Monte-Carlo simulation, Duplo reservoir simulation, Tarim Basin