Abstract: It is well known that the design of equipment capacities has significant influences on the equipment investment and furthermore on the economy of the thermal recovery process of heavy oil because the oil production depends greatly on time. In this paper a new mathematical model for determining the economical equipment capacity of the heavy oil thermal recovery system is proposed. First of all,the variation of the production data was investigated with statistics based on the recorded production data. It was found that the equipment capacity gap,namely the difference between the averaged liquid production of the thermal recovery system and the corresponding equipment capacity, dominantly affects the economy of the production process. Then a mathematical relation between the equipment capacity and the equipment capacity gap was derived.Finally a theoretical economic limit was proposed, correlated with the equipment capacity,the variation of the liquid production of the system,the mean oil price and the equipment investment.

Key words: thermal recovery, system, economical analysis, mathematical model

摘要： 稠油热采过程中产量随时间的变化幅度较大,生产设备处理量的选择对设备投资和生产过程的经济性影响很大。本文提出了一种新的确定稠油集输系统设备经济处理量的数学模型。根据实际的稠油热采产量生产记录,用统计理论研究了产量变化规律,发现平均处理量亏缺,即系统日平均产液能力与设备日平均处理量的差,影响着生产过程的经济性。然后导出了设备处理量与平均处理量亏缺的数学关系式。最后,将热采系统设备的设计处理量与平均原油价格、产量变化规律和设备投资关联起来,给出了经济处理量的理论界限及其计算方法。

关键词: 热采, 系统, 经济分析, 数学模型