关键词: 资源前景, 储量, 预测, 石油, 中国

Abstract: Oil is an important strategic material that plays a critical role in state security and national economy development. China is rich in oil resource. Among unproved resource,commercial and sustainable exploration resource has a large percentage. There is a resource base for basing on domestic exploration to meet the requirement of domestic economic development to a maximum. However, petroleum industry is facing the challenges that remained resources are becoming poorer, reserve-production ratio is decreasing and the contradictions between supply and demand are sharpening. To keep sustainable development of petroleum industry should be based on the domestic exploration firstly, and then increasing the utilization of natural gas resources and enhancing the proportion and shares of oil resource exploration overseas. It is estimated that the increase of annual proved reserves will be maintained at the level of the "ninth-five plan". The increase of oil reserves in the west will be the same as the east in China. The exploration for old oil provinces in the east will still play an important role in the next decade. It can be predicted that the offshore-proved oil reserves in the next 10 years will increase faster than those in the "ninth-five plan".

Key words: resource prospects, prediction, oil, China